Just as the European Commission was polishing up its new plan to ban all supplies of Russian gas disaster struck and at the worst possible moment.
By Robert Harneis
The Ban was announced to take effect in stages up to November 1st 2027. After that no more Russian gas and then as a result of the US Israeli attack on Iran, Teheran closed the straits of Hormuz and Qatar declared ‘force majeure and its inability to fulfill gas contracts. One fifth of global LNG gas passes through the straits. This comes as France and Germany have critically low levels of gas in storage – 21% and 20% respectively.
Record imports
Europe imported a record 142 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2025, a 28% increase from the previous year. US supplied 55% of Europe’s LNG imports last month, while Russia contributed just over 25%, In January, the EU’s monthly LNG imports from Russia hit a record high of 2.3bcm, up more than 10% y/y and nearly a fifth of all LNG imports.
President Putin chose this moment to observe that maybe it would be better if Russia stopped supplies to Europe immediately and got on with finding other more reliable trading partners as soon as possible.
New markets for Russia
““Other markets are opening now,” Putin said in an interview with state TV. “Maybe it’s better for us to end supplies to the European market right now? To go to those markets that are opening now and get a foothold there.”
At least half of Russia’s LNG exports already go to Europe but now without the Qatari supplies, the demand in Asia will spike and, Russia should be able to redirect all those exports to markets in Asia without difficulty.
Putin met Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto at the Kremlin on March 5 and said that Moscow intends to maintain supplies to what he described as reliable partners within Europe. Russia “remains ready to deliver energy resources to those who want to work with us,” he said, referring to Hungary and Slovakia as continuing customers.
To the highest bidder
He twisted the knife further reminding Brussels “there are customers who are ready to buy this natural gas at a higher price. In this case, this results from the developments in the Middle East and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and so on. Once you have these premium buyers on the market, this means, and I really believe that this is the case, that some suppliers who have been serving the European market for quite some time now, for example, the United States and US companies, will definitely switch to the highest bidder. This is quite natural.” He said.
Dictature du réel, les livraisons de gaz liquéfié russe vers la France ont augmenté de 41 % en 2023. Avec le retrait du gaz nord américain, la Russie pourrait devenir le premier exportateur de GLN vers la France. C’est aussi bien que par #nordstream2 mais c’est quatre fois plus… pic.twitter.com/G9Mla5LKYy
— Stratpol (@stratpol_site) February 11, 2024
